Michigan Football: AP Preseason vs. Final Rankings
Thought it would be interesting to see how our preseason rankings compared to our final rankings during the Harbaugh years (excluding 2020 given how unusual the circumstances were that year). Here's the Link where I got the data.
Year. Preseason. Final. Difference.
2015. Rec. Votes 12. -14 or more
2016. 7. 10. +3
2017. 10. NR. +15 or more
2018. 14. 14. 0
2019. 7 18. +11
2021 Rec. Votes. 3. -22 or more
2022. 8. 3. -5
2023. 2 1. -1
So that's 2 years where we were pretty disappointing vs. AP preseason expectations (2017 and 2019) and 2 years where we far outpaced AP preseason expectations (2015 and 2021). The other 3 years the AP preseason expectations were relatively accurate. Overall, we outpaced AP preseason rankings in 4/8 years, failed to meet them in 2/8 and ended up exactly where predicted in 1/8. That goes against the common narrative from rival fanbases that Michigan is perennially overrated.
I'm curious how it compares with other programs that recruit like we do (e.g. PSU, ND), but that will have to wait for a follow up post.
We were #2 in 2023-4 to start??
Yes. Michigan even had two first place votes in the preseason poll!
2 ball knowers in the AP
Kirk Bohls and Rece Davis even had us at #1 in their preseason polls. Their names must be remembered. Their names must not be forgot.
Unless I've forgotten, wasn't Rece Davis all too happy to follow the wind when it came to sign-gate? If so, I'm not sure that anything else he has opined on matters all that much.
You mean Alabama alum Rece Davis? Yes, he's always been a bit of a thorn in Michigan's side. He's not a bad guy in terms of his devotion to college football (imo) and has recently paid some respect to our football program, but he's never hidden his SEC bias very well.
Great work, thanks for pulling together. I will say that every blue blood (outside of the teams that dominate for 5 years plus) are viewed as perennially overrated - just ask ND, Texas, or a handful of others.
Just a caveat though, they ARE always overrated and we're not. /s
I'd like to see our same results from about 1988 to 2000. Because I think we were usually (except for 1997) overrated in that period. Just the Moeller years
1990: Started #4 finished #12
1991: Started #2 finished #6
1992: Started #6 finished #5 (the famous 9-0-3 year)
1993: Started #3 finished #23
1994: Started #5 finished #12 (one of the most painful years of my fandom. This team could have won the national title and finished 8-4, with the Hail Mary loss to a Colorado team that went 11-1 and a close lose to a 12-0 PSU, then the season went off the rails)
Not sure about Lloyd and late Bo, but poor Gary sure underperformed with the talent he had.
Yes, I feel like there is some revisionism that happens when many look back at the Moeller years with some even lamenting his departure because we were on the "upswing". Gary did some nice things offensively in terms of the no-huddle and modernizing our offense to include significant passing. But overall I remember lots of disorganization (unnecessary timeouts, delays of game, etc) and declining performance. 1990 started off well - we were even ranked #1 at 3-1 before losing the next two - and ended with a B10 title We won titles in 1991 and 1992 - ugh the ties and turnovers. But then his last two years were 8-4 with 3rd and 4th place B10 finishes. The trajectory did not appear to be up and while recruiting was good, the results were getting worse. I can't say I was disappointed when he was fired - although the entire incident was regrettable - because it felt like we were settling into a malaise that would be difficult to get out of. How long would it have been before he was fired for performance? Would 1997 have happened?
It's a very generic perception that every "high major" or blue blood team is always overrated, but also Texas is actually perennially overrated.
In all seriousness, I think it's just psychology. It's not memorable when expectations are met (or close-ish to met), but exceptions are memorable. For example, to casual fans, it's memorable that 2021 Michigan went from unranked preseason (and following a dreadful covid year) to top-5 at the end of the year. It's probably much less memorable that a top-5 presason Michigan team in 2023 (coming off 2 straight B1G titles) ended up going 15-0.
The expectation in 2021 was mediocrity (at best) and Michigan soared past it. The expectation in 2023 was excellence and Michigan was excellent.
It's not all fanbase psychology. While the ND of history is somewhat different, ND of the last 30 years is overrated, unquestionably. But some of this is certainly driven by audience. Both CFB and the media surrounding it are entertainment products. And people would rather read about ND than Boise St. or Oregon. So it makes sense that the ND's of the world are likely to be overvalued in rankings simply because the general knowledge of and attention on such teams is substantially more than other teams that are overperforming over the same period. Additionally, scheduling plays into this. With no conference, ND is often playing a relatively middling schedule, with no conference championship. In most conferences (sans the B1G) the conference championship is around a 50/50 bet that a team will get into the CFP. ND's appalling CFP visits underscore how their scheduling also leads to being overrated. They were even almost admitted in 2021 with a loss to Cincy (thankfully Cincy went undefeated).
2016 finishing 10th is fucking brutal. 3 games lost right at the end and no hardware to show for it. They were not a national-title level team because of the offense, but that should have been Harbaugh's first playoff team
2016 had a decent offense, but once again it was the defense that carried that team. Top 5 defense in SP+, and the #1 defense in points per drive.
The offense was…top 25. Not bad. Scored a lot of points. Not elite. It’s a shame, because we wasted one of the best defenses in the country.
If anyone wants to know what Iowa could have accomplished over the past 3-5 years with a decent offense, 2016 Michigan isn’t a bad comp.
The issue with Harbaugh teams of that time was being able to put up tons of points against inferior defenses but struggling against good defenses. The offense put up 14 points against Wisconsin in an ugly game, 13 against Iowa, 17 against OSU (in regulation), and 24 against FSU (8 pts were from a McCray pick 6 with a failed 2pt try and a Metellus blocked PAT returned for 2 pts) in a game where UM had 14 possessions. They could not run the ball to successfully pick up multiple first downs to salt the clock away against Wisconsin (defense bailed us out), Iowa, & OSU. And our passing game wasn't good enough to be effective when in obvious passing downs.
Also have to add 2015 MSU into that. I, along with everyone else celebrated when they forced a Turnover on Downs and just needed a 1st down to put the game away
Of all the wonderful aspects of the last few years, the ability to grind away the game and get first downs has to be my favorite.
Or to run Edward’s for 75 & 85 instead of getting a first down.
That works too.
While I agree with you, I was at the Wisconsin game that year. We missed 3 chip shot field goals. And the irony attached to the epic Lewis interception…Wisconsin is backed up on their own 2 yard line on 4th down. If he bats the ball away instead of intercepting it, we’re pounding the ball in for a score on the next play. That game could have easily been a 30-7 win instead of 14-7 win.
I’m pretty sure Speight’s injury was at its worst during the Iowa and OSU games. He didn’t even play against Indiana.
Sprights injured shoulder was worth 2 losses
It’s a shame, because the Big Ten refs in Columbus screwed over one of the best defenses in the country.
FIFY
It feels like 2024 might resemble 2016 in a lot of ways--carried by the defense and on the edge of playoff qualification depending on the maturation of the offense. At least the expanded playoffs give us a greater margin for error than the 2016 season.
Can't upvote, so can just say I totally agree.
I was quite the Wilton Speight skeptic in 2016, but I will say if we have QB at his ‘16 pre-injury level we will win in Columbus and win the B1G again.
While I think the 24 Defense was better, the offenses aren’t even comparable. Only the WR/TE positions are even close. The QB/RB/OL in 24 were exponentially better. Just look at the NFL draft picks. Corum is a generational back, perhaps the best I’ve seen at UM. 16’ was turtle-slow wrecking ball Deveon Smith. And the QB comparisons. OMG!
Way too many end of season injuries at QB. Not enough depth.
The 2016 offense had a smoke-and-mirrors feel to it all season. We couldn't really run the ball, and Speight was serviceable but had a habit of rushing his reads under pressure. And our mediocre O-line play put him under pressure quite frequently. The tight ends were the only consistently reliable unit. Jedd Fisch pulled a rabbit out of a hat in putting together a halfway decent passing game that year, seeing as how the offense cratered in 2017 after he left.
The jump from 2014-2015 cannot be overstated: it was the single greatest jump in scoring in modern Michigan history. We went from “rock bottom” in 2014 to “made a Florida team full of NFLers quit” with an NFL-bound QB in 2015. Just a masterful job of piecing together a season.
…and the drop from 2016-2017 likewise cannot be overstated. It was the single greatest DROP in scoring in modern Michigan history. There was a LOT to like about Michigan at the end of the 2016 season (including a shoulda-had-it game vs OSU), but the offense in 2017 was absolutely terrible and I will never understand how Harbaugh & co. went through the season with a “we can fix this by next week just by doing what we’re doing” attitude.
Harbaugh giveth and Harbaugh taketh away.
Look at the 2014 and 2015 recruiting classes. 2017 could've gone better, but it was short of 3rd- and 4th-year players and not destined to be a great season.
They lost 11 guys to the NFL the year before.
Some of the 2013s (Dymonte Thomas comes to mind) burned redshirts early and left UM a little short of 5th-years, too. I looked on Wikipedia just now. On offense you had Khalid Hill and Patrick Kugler. On defense, Mo Hurst (the only NFLer) and Mike McCray.
I partially agree with you, but 2017 had Higdon, Chris Evans, DPJ, Gentry, Eubanks, and Ty Isaac.
The problem was QB play - or lack thereof - and absolute coaching malfeasance.
I will never get tired of using last season’s Nebraska team as an example: Matt Rhule went through like 3 different offensive systems in an attempt to score points, in spite of terrible QBing. And this in a year which was an acknowledged Year Zero, with a decent but not great defense and no real ambitions within the conference. Imagine how innovative he would have gotten if Nebraska was in contention.
If Nebraska can roll with the triple option in 2023, we could have done better in 2017 than an offensive philosophy of “John O’Korn, the ghost of Brandon Peters, and the tattered remains of Wilton Speight are fine, we’ll just lean on the defense again”
Sorry, I’m bitter af.
If Nebraska can roll with the triple option in 2023, we could have done better in 2017 than an offensive philosophy of “John O’Korn, the ghost of Brandon Peters, and the tattered remains of Wilton Speight are fine, we’ll just lean on the defense again”
What offensive philosophy should we have had, though?
The QBs on the roster after Speight were Peters, O’Korn, McCaffrey (true FR), Malzone and walk-ons. Did you want one of these guys to run the option? Air raid? What could they have done, given the roster? I don’t understand.
So to backup your point about how bad 8-5 Michigan was in 2017, you point to how well coached 5-7 Nebraska was last year? Interesting
2017 had Higdon, Chris Evans, DPJ, Gentry, Eubanks, and Ty Isaac.
I note that you didn't name any offensive linemen...
That team was seriously short on upperclass depth/talent. The 2014 recruiting class happened to be small and then the next year, Hoke was fired and we had no coach for a month before we hired Harbaugh at the end of December - causing the 2015 class to also be small. In the pre-portal era, having two subpar classes in a row was a killer.
I don't hold anything from that season against the staff, especially given the injuries at QB. Getting eight wins out of that team was respectable, all things considered.
I'm surprised no one has mentioned anything about our offensive line during those years. 2021 was the first year during the Harbaugh era that we had a truly elite O-line. Our 2018 O-line was decent, but our 2017 O-line was so bad that there was really nowhere to go but up. Our O-line (along with our defense) was really the key to our success the past three years.
In the (post-Michigan) words of Jim Harbaugh, offensive linemen are weapons.
This is peak Michigan fandom right here. There’s nothing to complain about from the last three seasons, so you went on a deep dive and found something to rant about from 2017.
Well done!
Would we have been happy “rolling” to 5-7 in the B1G West like “rolling” Nebraska? People would have thought Harbaugh was nuts.
Part of that is Wilson Speight's injury, though. It seems clear in hindsight that he never fully recovered from his 2016 injuries, at which point our QB position was reduced to thoughts and prayers. It's not clear to me what the coaches could have done - recruit better before Harbaugh got there, or not have Peters broken?
It does put emphasis on one thing, though: have great lines, win many games. Football is won and lost in the trenches.
A quick look over the same time frame for ND and they are 3-3-4 (under-ranked, neutral, over-ranked). PSU is 2-4-4
To hell with Notre Dame!
Friendly reminder Michigan finished number 1 in the AP poll and in all other polls in 2023
All others were 2nd Place or lower.
- The Sphinx
All others were 2nd Place or lower.
- including this damn double post.
Despite the vast Internet barrage against Michigan, despite Pete Thamel, despite ESPN, despite Tony Petiti and despite the failed private investigation by OSU
We are CHAMPIONS !!!!!
538 did a review of polling back around the 2017 or 2018 season IIRC. Came out that Michigan was generally middle of the road when it came to under-delivering on preseason hype. The bigger culprits were teams like ND, Texas, and FSU.
The bigger issue Michigan ran into for years was under RichRod where they'd beat the snot out of some terrible OOC teams (and ND randomly) to get ranked in weeks 2 or 3 before getting shoved in a trashcan by the good teams in the Big Ten.
Under Harbaugh (early) national press was, as I would put it:
Preseason Michigan: Projected to go 10-2 with losses to OSU and PSU (or something)
Week 7 Michigan: 6-1, they're foR rEaL anD gOiNg tO bEat OSU!
Week 13 Michigan: Finished 10-2, another disappointing season coming in under expectations.
Rinse and repeat.
Good question: What has been this era’s most perennially overranked team? Notre Dame? Penn State? Michigan State? Texas?
Gotta go with Texas.
You might find the post below from reddit interesting. Basically they looked back over last 30+ years to see who has fallen the most from preseason poll to final AP poll. Texas, Oklahoma, USC, ND, Michigan, FSU, Nebraska etc...
Of course because the number system stops at 25, teams that have generally lower expectations/recruiting rankings (say typically ranked in the teens to start the year) have a lot less overall spots to fall. MSU's 2016 season in which they went 3-9 and started season ranked #12 will only fall 13 spots. But Michigan's 2017 team that started season ranked 11 but finished Unranked at 8-5 will be treated basically exactly the same for these calculations.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/12b3drf/the_most_overrated_teams_from_1989_to_2022_based/
Rival fans are stupid, at least the Michigan hating fans are.
Thanks for doing this. It could become a diary, me thinks.