hoops game previews
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | #51 Michigan (10-7, 4-2) at #43 Maryland (11-6, 2-4) |
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|---|---|---|
| WHERE | Ira Weintraub Fieldhouse College Park, MD |
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| WHEN | 7:00 PM | |
| THE LINE | Kenpom: UMD –4 Torvik: UMD –2.4 |
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| TELEVISION | ESPN |
THE OVERVIEW
Michigan is the underdog in a matchup they won by 35 points just 18 days ago. Those algorithms don't take "These teams just played" into account, but then neither does basketball. It does care about venue--they give the home team about a +3 margin--but probably doesn't know about Hunter Dickinson's white-hot hatred of the local basketball outfit. Both he and fellow DMC native Terrance Williams II have played some of their best games before family in College Park.
They may be on shakier ground with the other 29 points of swing. Not too much has changed between these teams in the last two weeks, except Maryland's ranked 17 spots lower after beating just one top-200 outfit since early December. After Michigan's 81-46 win in Ann Arbor both teams have gone 1-2 with two Big Ten losses on the road, one of them to Iowa. Michigan's Ls were much closer, so I guess to the fancystats beating #18 Ohio State at home is just that much more impressive than finding yourself in a game with Northwestern. Which, fair.
Said defeat of Ohio State wasn't a fluke, though. PG Jahmir Young went off for 30 points, and also collected a Derrick Walton Jr-esque five offensive boards. That game also turned on some clever coaching: Maryland came out at halftime with a press that confounded Ohio State, generated a handful of turnovers, and kept Chris Holtmann's vaunted offense to 7 points in 10 minutes.
Start watching at 13:57 if it doesn't put you there.
What Maryland hasn't found in that time is an answer for Michigan's size. One thing I forgot to mention about the above game is the Buckeyes were without Zed Key, who's really their only post presence. If anything Maryland's forward situation has gotten worse, since their top backup left with a foot injury and hasn't played since.
In fact if anyone's found another playable center in the interim it's Michigan, who recently introduced a two-bigs lineup to get more minutes for Tarris Reed at the four. Reed was able to counter the bullyball of Kris Murray and provide enough offensive rebounding to combat small lineups. It also worked against Northwestern, which has one excellent rim protector, but their four is just another small forward.
This will be an interesting test of Maryland's new coach, Kevin Willard, a defensive guy who came up under Rick Pitino. Does he just go small all game and live with the results? Did he notice something late in the first game? Does he follow Michigan's last few opponents in denying Hunter the rim at all costs, and let threes fall where they may?
THE US
My graphic [click to embiggen]:
Tarris Reed moved up to 6th man and I've swapped Will Tschetter (11 and 10 minutes the last two games) for Isaiah Barnes (DNP) since. Williams is getting 10-12 fewer minutes per game.
THE LINEUP CARD
My graphic [click for big]:
Maryland is expected to still be without forward Patrick Emilien, a weird 6'7" center type. Maryland was more or less running a six-man lineup without Emilien before he got roughed up pretty badly trying to help on Dickinson.
I've replaced Emilien this week with Noah Batchelor, who's larger than his listing but not THAT much larger. Batchelor played 22 of the 32 minutes he's been on the court this month in that game as a small five while Julian Reese sat with foul trouble. Maryland also tried inserting a 6'11" freshman, Caelum Swanton-Rodger; the Michigan game was his longest appearance this year as well.
[Hit THE JUMP for Returtle.]
Oh for Pete's sakes there's basketball today.
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | #65 Michigan (7-5) vs #24 Maryland (10-3) |
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|---|---|---|
| WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI |
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| WHEN | 4:30 PM | |
| THE LINE | Kenpom: M +1 Torvik: M +2 |
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| TELEVISION | FS1 |
THE OVERVIEW
Maryland got a bit of a reality check in December after an 8-0 start under new head coach/Rick Pitino acolyte Kevin Willard had Terpville uttering crazy words like Back. First Willard found out what getting Wisconsin'd at Wisconsin feels like. Then his team went to Brooklyn, fell behind 34-17 to #3 Tennessee at halftime, and clawed their way back to within 2 with 24 seconds left with a chance to tie on their last possession. Then #4 UCLA came to visit and slaughtered them inside because Maryland doesn't have a guy over 6'9" who's playable.
A pallet-cleansing blowout of Saint Peter's restored any shaken confidence, but #226 UMBC was within striking distance all game last Thursday before the Terps covered that up with a couple of 12-2 runs. Buddy, what's your secret?
Michigan got a giant reality check on Thursday when they fucked around with a supra-200 mid-major for a fifth time this season, and will find out that Quad-4 loss at home to end a nonconference season with zero resume wins means you have to win 75% of your Big Ten games to have a hope of making the Tournament now. Two wins in a four-game stretch with Maryland and Penn State at home, followed by MSU and Iowa on the road, would be in line with projections. A victory over any of them would be Michigan's best of the season. I know it's literally the first day of the year, but if they are scratching to save 2023 in a couple of months, a pair of centers that Dickinson previously stuffed in a body bag seems a likely spot to look back on for a "oooh, if only we had That one."
THE US
My graphic [click to embiggen]:
Kobe Bufkin gets a star. Hunter Dickinson's crown has been temporarily relocated to a position 1 foot above the basket, to be retrieved at his convenience.
THE LINEUP CARD
My graphic [click for big]:
As in past years Donta Scott moves down to the post when Maryland's de jure center needs a breather. The Terps actually started the last two games in their small look with Ian Martinez at the two, bumping Hart and Carey to SF and PF respectively. We're guessing that was for UMBC and Saint Peter's (center heights: 6'8" and 6'9"), and Reese returns to face Dickinson.
EVENT NOTE: Our friends at VENUE are having a Fiesta Bowl game watch party on Saturday. They let me name the drinks (I recommend the Cayman Nebraska). There's also a pre-game event starting at 3PM hosted by comedian Jeff Fritz, Michigan football trivia, and UM athlete/ B10 wrestling champs Mason Parris, Cameron Amine and Will Lewan. It's free, but best to reserve a spot.
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | #49 Michigan (7-4) vs #295 CMU (4-8) |
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|---|---|---|
| WHERE | Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI |
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| WHEN | 7 PM | |
| THE LINE | Kenpom: M - 20 Torvik: M - 19 |
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| TELEVISION | B1G+ |
THE OVERVIEW
Michigan has one more game against a dreg to not screw up before the Big Ten season begins in earnest. As nonconference sleepers go CMU is much closer to Jackson State and Eastern Michigan than Ohio and Lipscomb. Their point guard/offensive engine has been out since Thanksgiving, and since then they have two wins against non-DI teams and losses to Kenpom #235 Robert Morris, #224 Tulsa, #118 Missouri State, and #144 YSU. They still haven't said why, but we're guessing he's unavailable tonight as well. In his absence, every other guard and wing has moved up, drawing in a freshman PF/C who's just there for putbacks and blocking shots.
Scattered injuries have sidelined six other regulars at times early this season, so the Chips have had a hard time figuring out their lineups. Their best move is to block shots, steal the ball, and get in transition. Even starting a tiny true freshman at PG, Michigan remains one of the stingiest teams in the country when it comes to either. This should be a slaughter, except letting bad teams hang around has been a theme all season.
THE US
My graphic [click to embiggen]:
No changes.
THE LINEUP CARD
My graphic [click for big]:
You have Hunter Dickinson and shooters. They have teenagers and transfers, and the tallest guy on the team is 190 pounds and is only here to show NBA people he can can threes at 6-9. You know the drill.
with a bonus reminder that M's defense is bonkers
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