2020-21 toledo

I Do Not Apologize For The Headline

I mean, just watch this:

Michigan scoring on 7(!) different Horns sets this season: pic.twitter.com/Vc0brIzDe8

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) December 8, 2020

See? (Here's a Horns explainer; the short version is these sets all begin with the power forward and center lined up with one at each corner of the free throw line or thereabouts.)

Throw a stick at College Basketball Strategy Twitter and there's a high likelihood you'll hit on a slick Juwan Howard set:

Juwan Howard Coaching Wrinkles:

Spain PnR

Another common set at the NBA Level. Looks very similar to standard top of key ballscreen action

The distinction?

Franz sets backscreen for roll-man, putting his defender in a stressful spot. He can shoot/attack closeout/dump to post pic.twitter.com/adgpQ241Ho

— LAbound (@LAbound2) December 10, 2020

It's of little surprise that the threat of Hunter Dickinson is making these sets more lethal. With this much variety in the offense, defenders have to make split-second decisions about how they're supposed to guard any number of different actions, and with the big man often drawing extra attention, wide open looks are opening up for the others:

Juwan Howard Coaching Wrinkles:

Chin Offense

The basic principle is 5-out spacing with a backscreen that isolates a favorable matchup.

This was a staple of the Beilein offense often ran for Glenn Robinson. pic.twitter.com/JgQxhBVykK

— LAbound (@LAbound2) December 10, 2020

Michigan now boasts the #6 adjusted offense on KenPom and the #10 two-point percentage; they get the 12th-lowest percentage of their shots blocked in the country. Sure, the lack of a top-tier opponent impacts the raw stats a bit, but Howard is also shaping the offense to his ideal and it looks great.

[Hit THE JUMP for how Howard helps Dickinson establish post position, Livers from midrange, defensive lapses, and more.]

With one big exception, that went as well as one could hope.

Facing a frisky opponent on short notice, Michigan established their identity early by relentlessly attacking the paint, shut down Toledo's top scorer, and cruised to a perfect 5-0 non-conference record. Unfortunately, the status of one of those paint presences is now in doubt.

Senior center Austin Davis tallied the team's first six points and added two more buckets before the customary substitution for freshman Hunter Dickinson with the Wolverines holding a 15-12 lead. After Davis kick-started the offense, Dickinson helped take over the game on both ends, as Michigan went on a 10-2 run after he checked in.

The Rockets briefly pulled closer but with their star, Marreon Jackson, getting harangued into a 0-for-8, four-turnover first half, the home team inevitably blew the game open. Michigan blocked seven shots in the first half, including four by Dickinson, as drives were met with a sea of arms and with only a few exceptions outside shots were still contested. The Wolverines entered the break with a 44-26 lead.

Austin Davis scored ten first-half points but later exited with a leg injury [Campredon]

The starting five picked up where the team left it off coming out of the tunnel. While Toledo hit a couple threes to keep the margin within relative reach, Eli Brooks and, after an early substitution, Chaundee Brown answered with their own triples, and Davis earned a trip to the line after an offensive rebound, hitting both to take his point total to 12, a career-high.

A couple possessions later, however, Davis pulled up limping with a non-contact injury while moving to set a screen and went straight to the bench, inadvertently stopping play with a "moving screen" on the way. He eventually went to the locker room, and while he came back to the bench, he did so with a heavy limp; the team announced he'll be evaluated in full tomorrow.

While a potential Davis absence would have a significant impact on the team as they head into Big Ten play, his injury did little to slow M's roll this evening. They stretched their lead to as much as 26 points with five different players knocking down threes in the second half. Dickinson and Brooks each scored a dozen in the half to lead an otherwise balanced attack. The freshman big man was particularly dominant, scoring a series of comical post buckets by bulldozing through overmatched defenders.

Chaundee Brown made his usual impact on both ends of the court [Campredon]

Dickinson led Michigan's five double-digit scorers with 18 points while stuffing the stat sheet with eight boards, an assist, four blocks, and a steal. Isaiah Livers only needed nine shooting possessions to net 16 points and was similarly active all over the floor. Franz Wagner came around with an efficient 14 points, making both of his three-point attempts and adding five rebounds, four assists, a block, and a steal. Chaundee Brown just missed out on being the sixth double-digit scorer with nine on 4/4 FGs; he also had three assists, a block, and a steal while playing his signature hounding defense.

Brandon Johns played center in Davis' place for much of his ten minutes of action, which mostly came late in the game. He was his usual energetic self, making his only shot, getting to the line for another point, getting an offensive rebound among his three total boards, and recording a block and a steal. He was also robbed of a pretty assist by a shooting foul. Toledo didn't have the size and skill up front to test him too much; at least for now, however, he looks like he can handle playing backup minutes at the five.

Michigan finished with a scorching 1.32 points per possession despite the usual late bench mob stint slowing the scoring flow. Only a late flurry after the game was well in hand got the Rockets to scrape above a point per trip. The Wolverines begin conference play on Sunday against a 3-1 Penn State team that's ranked 51st following an unexpected 20-point win at Virginia Tech that sent the Hokies tumbling 23 spots to 49th on KenPom. Hopefully they'll have Big Country available. We'll have to wait and see.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

After Michigan's ACC/B1G Challenge matchup with NC State was canceled because of COVID issues in the Wolfpack program, the Wolverines quickly found a replacement in Toledo. While losing the lone top-100 non-conference game on the schedule is a blow to M's strength of schedule, the Rockets are a solid short-notice replacement, sitting just outside the top 100 on KenPom—they're the top-ranked team in the MAC. While they're only 3-2 with their best victory over #168 Eastern Michigan, they've blown out their lesser opponents—including mutual foe Oakland, who they beat 80-53—and lost by a combined five points to #116 Bradley and #59 Xavier.

Adding Toledo to the schedule should mitigate concerns about a hypothetical NCAA Tournament resumé, especially since NC State isn't quite a marquee opponent. There's going to be so little non-conference data, not to mention so many canceled games, that as long as Michigan takes care of business in the Big Ten, they should be fine for tournament purposes. It doesn't hurt that the Big Ten is kicking the ACC's ass in the Challenge. Yesterday's scores:

• Iowa 93, UNC 80
• Illinois 83, Duke 68 (at Cameron!)
• Penn State 75, Virginia Tech 55
• Rutgers 79, Syracuse 69
• Ohio State 90, Notre Dame 85
• Minnesota 85, Boston College 80
• Miami 58, Purdue 54

If not for the Boilermakers gacking up a huge second-half lead in Miami, the B1G would've had a clean 7-0 sweep yesterday. The Challenge is already decided; there are only four more games today because of further cancelations, including the MSU-Virginia headliner. That should boost the conference's profile come Selection Sunday.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

Diagram FAQ. These now have Torvik's PRPG! all-in-one stat in the little boxes.

Starting center AJ Edu, a player Toledo was very excited about this season, had season-ending surgery on a torn meniscus suffered in the season's second game. He's an elite shot-blocker; there isn't another rim protector of his caliber on the roster.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Yes, Austin Davis is still the starting center, even though Hunter Dickinson is getting much more playing time.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]